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Recent electronics book-to-bills suggest improving demand

Connectors book-to-bill data combined with seasonal trends in billings and bookings are positive for Tyco Electronics, Amphenol and Molex. Positive data points exist for PCB fabricators TTM Technologies and Merix Corporation and electronics manufacturing services (EMS) companies with PCB fabrication operations such as Flextronics and Sanmina-SCI.

Connectors
The connector book-to-bill ratio recently rose above 1.00.  Bishop & Associates (www.bishopinc.com) global connector book-to-bill increased from 1.00 in June to 1.07 in July as detailed in Credit Suisse’s report issued by Will Stein. The 3-month moving average book-to-bill ratio is now 1.04. The trend suggests growing connector demand.

While shipments (billings) declined by 3.5% month-on-month, the average July month-on-month change over the last five years has been -8.1%.

New orders (bookings) increased by 1.5% month-on-month versus the typical July month-on-month bookings rate of -5.3%.

Connectors book-to-bill July 2009
Electronics connectors book-to-bill July 2009

Reaction
Positive book-to-bill data combined with much better than normal seasonal trends in both billings and bookings are positive for the connector manufacturers Tyco Electronics (TEL), Amphenol (APH), and Molex (MOLX), says Credit Suisse’s Stein in the report.

Printed circuit boards
Printed circuit board (PCB) book-to-bill still well above 1.0.  The U.S. PCB book-t-bill dropped from 1.11 in June to 1.07 in July. New orders (bookings) decreased by 24.5% month-on-month while shipments (billings) decreased by 12.3% month-on-month. The trend suggests stabilizing PCB demand.

Printed circuit board book-to-bill July 2009
Printed circuit board book-to-bill July 2009

Reaction
While the month-on-month changes in bookings and billings appear negative, Credit Suisse believes the book-to-bill trend is more noteworthy, and still well above 1.0.

As a result Credit Suisse sees this as a positive data point for PCB fabricators TTM Technologies (TTMI) and Merix Corporation (MERX) and electronics manufacturing services (EMS) companies with PCB fabrication operations such as Flextronics (FLEX) and Sanmina-SCI (SANM).

Source: Credit Suisse, IPC, Bishop & Associates

 

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