“The book-to-bill ratio for PCBs overall has stayed in negative territory for 10 months now, and orders are still declining compared to last year,” said IPC President Denny McGuirk. “This suggests we will continue to see weak sales for the next few months at least. The flexible circuit segment of the industry is faring better than rigid PCBs right now,” he added.
Rigid printed circuit boards
Rigid printed circuit board shipments are down 23.2% and bookings are down 35.5% in February 2009 from February 2008.
Year-to-date, rigid printed circuit board shipments are down 21.1% and bookings are down 33.2%.
Compared to the previous month, rigid printed circuit board shipments decreased 3.2% and rigid bookings decreased 3.5%.
The book-to-bill ratio for the North American rigid printed circuit board industry in February 2009 remained below parity at 0.89.
Flexible printed circuit boards
Flexible circuit shipments in February 2009 are up 3.6%, and bookings are down 6.1% compared to February 2008. Year to date, flexible circuit shipments are up 9.4 percent and bookings are down 4.2 percent. Compared to the previous month, flexible circuit shipments are up 8.7 percent and flex bookings were up 23.9 percent. The North American flexible circuit book-to-bill ratio in February 2009 climbed just above parity at 1.02.
Rigid, flexible combined
For rigid printed circuit boards and flexible circuits combined, industry shipments in February 2009 decreased 21.4% from February 2008 and orders booked decreased 33.7% from February 2008.
Year-to-date, combined industry shipments are down 19.2% and bookings are down 31.6%. Compared to the previous month, combined industry shipments for February 2009 are down 2.3% and combined bookings are down 1.6%. The combined (rigid and flex) industry book-to-bill ratio in February 2009 was 0.90.
Bare circuits vs. assembly
Flexible circuit sales typically include value-added services such as assembly, in addition to the bare flex circuits. In February, the flexible circuit manufacturers in IPC’s survey sample indicated that bare circuits accounted for approximately 78% of their shipment value reported for the month. Assembly and other services make up a large and growing segment of flexible circuit producers’ businesses. This figure is also sensitive to changes in the survey sample, which may occur at the beginning of each calendar year.
Methodology, interpreting data
The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next two to three months.
Book-to-bill ratios and growth rates for rigid printed circuit boards and flexible circuits combined are heavily affected by the rigid printed circuit board segment. Rigid printed circuit boards represent an estimated 90% of the current PCB industry in North America.
IPC’s monthly survey of the North American printed circuit board industry tracks bookings and shipments from U.S. and Canadian facilities, only, which provide indicators of ‘regional’ demand. These numbers do not measure U.S. and Canadian PCB production. To track regional production trends, however, IPC asks survey participants for the percent of their reported shipments that were produced domestically (i.e., in the USA or Canada).
In February 2009, 89% of total printed circuit board shipments reported were domestically produced. Domestic production accounted for 89% of rigid printed circuit boards and 88% of flexible circuit shipments in February by IPC survey participants. These numbers are significantly affected by the mix of companies in IPC’s survey sample, which may change slightly in January, but are kept constant through the calendar year.
Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they may reflect cyclical effects.
Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month may not be significant unless a trend of three consecutive months or more is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.
Source: IPC
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