First time ODMs to post YoY single-digit unit growth since 2000. iPad expected to continue to account for 70% of tablet PC market in 2011 while Apple also gains share of global notebook market.
Following a strong rebound in 2010, a recent industry report indicates PC shipments are expected to decline to 7.4% year-on-year growth in 2011 (excluding tablet PCs).
This is considerably lower than research firm IDC’s forecast of 10.7% growth.
The research report compiled by the Asian division of Royal Bank of Scotland sees global desktop PC unit growth falling to 3.5% year-on-year (v. 7.9% in 2010) and global notebook shipments rising 10.2% year-on-year (v. 19.7% in 2010).
In the report, a forecast is presented whereby Taiwan’s top-three notebook ODMs will see 9.7% quarter-on-quarter unit growth in 2Q11 – indicating 1Q11 as the trough for notebook shipments, with a 10.2% quarter-on-quarter unit decline. (Table 1)
Table 1
Taiwan notebook (NB) ODM shipment forecasts
In mature markets, consumer notebook demand has been affected by the iPad cannibalization effect and the slow economy. The bank expects consumer notebook demand to remain weak in the US and Europe into 2Q11 as shoppers continue to shift spending away from the segment and as distributors try to lower inventory levels; however sources cited in the report indicate they are already seeing stable growth in commercial purchasing.
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On the other hand, the report continues that both the consumer and commercial segments have seen healthy emerging market notebook unit growth in 2Q11.
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