The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trading and Industry (METI) released the October printed circuit board production data mid December, and Taiwanese printed circuit board manufacturers released their shipment data for November.
A couple of months remain with unreported data, however, there is enough information to review the 2009 market performance and plot a growth trend line for 2010.
October shipments from the Japanese printed circuit board industry totaled 63.12 billion yens, a 2.9% increase from September. Historically, fourth quarter shipments increase substantially for the Japanese electronics industry due to holiday shopping so the 2.9% increase was somewhat disappointing.
Revenue for October decreased 17.4% compared to the same month last year; however, this monthly decline is smaller than previous months.
The free fall in sales began during October 2008, and month-over-month revenue slides decreased at record setting numbers.
This small improvement in the rate of revenue decline can be viewed as a positive bit of news, and it is predicted November and December figures, once released, will be positive compared to the same months last year.
Accumulated revenue during the first ten months of 2009 declined 35.7% compared to the same period of time last year, but has continuously improved over the second half of the year. Further improvement is expected for November and December once numbers are available, but it may be difficult to move the needle with just two months remaining in the year. A decline of less than 20% compared to last year is almost impossible to achieve.
November shipments for Taiwanese printed circuit board manufacturers are a bit lower than October’s number, but are significantly higher than the same month last year. Several manufacturers doubled their sales in November 2009 compared to November 2008.
The Japanese printed circuit board industry recorded positive growth for November, but the Taiwanese industry is getting the lion’s share of the business thanks to the popularity of phones and notebook PCs including netbooks.
Printed circuit board growth will continue to be sporadic in the upcoming months; however analysts are very confident the electronics industry will sustain growth over the next two or three years. The Taiwanese printed circuit board manufacturers can hold on to a lot of this business if their costs remain competitive with their Chinese counterparts, their high tech capabilities remain strong.
At the time of this article, statistical data for the Korean printed circuit board industry was not available; however, many business associates in Korea have been happy to report stronger than expected sales over the last few months. There appears to be strong demand from their export markets, mainly cellular phones and flat panel TVs.
The Korean won has continued to appreciate against the Japanese yen and US dollar over the last few months, but business has not shifted to Japanese and American manufacturers. The “Buy Korean” activities rolled out over the last few years has established s strong domestic supply chain for materials and components.
Things look rosy for Korea and Taiwan. Unfortunately, the Japanese market may not be in full bloom for a while. The Japanese electronics industry does not have any promising business activities in the near future that can get things going. This situation, coupled with a rise in the yen against the US dollar, is another big barrier putting the kibosh on exports.
Most Japanese printed circuit board manufacturers are very dependant on business from the domestic electronics industry, and do not have any avenues to export printed circuit board products. Unfortunately, my forecast for the Japanese PWB industry in 2010 is not very optimistic.
Source: EPT Newsletter, VentureOutsource.com, December 2009
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